Kevin Gregg, Fourth Closer on Roster?

by jw

When I initially saw that the Jays were one of the finalists in the oh-so-epic Kevin Gregg sweepstakes, my first reaction was 'who?'  You see, I've never had him on my fantasy team, so why should I care about some middle reliever who played in Chicago?  As my previous post evidenced, the Blue Jays have more relievers than they know what to do with.

Oh, right, free agent compensation.

The Cubs declined to offer Gregg arbitration and so are not entitled to compensation when he signs, currently looking like it's going to be the Jays.  Gregg is a Type A player and has a good chance of retaining that designation going into the next offseason, even if he only has a modest amount of save opportunities.  If the Blue Jays sign him to a minimal contract this offseason, next offseason they should be able to expect Gregg to decline arbitration, likely gaining the Jays a first or second round pick plus a supplemental round pick in the 2011 draft.

There are three scenarios here:

1) Gregg slips to Type B designation, in which case the Jays gain a supplemental round pick in the 2011 draft.

2) Gregg retains Type A designation and declines arbitration, where the Jays gain a team's draft pick and in addition to the supplemental round pick.

3) Gregg retains Type A designation and accepts arbitration.  His contract will be low so he wouldn't be able to get a very large raise, probably meaning that the Jays gain a decent reliever at low cost for the 2011 season.

Really, it's a 'win'-'WIN'-'kinda okay' situation, respectively.  I'm pretty sure this is Alex Anthopoulos' reasoning, because it's certainly not a move that would improve the team next season.

(If he does indeed sign with the Jays, my bullpen prediction adjusts to CL Frasor, SU Downs, SU Gregg, Carlson, Tallet, Zinicola, Camp, with Roenicke starting the year as Las Vegas' closer.)