On Overbay, and why I want him to go away.

Following up on a mini argument that I had on Twitter last week with fellow BJwaMG author JW, I feel that I must no justify exactly why I feel that Lyle Overbay is not useful.

When the Jays traded for Overbay in December of 2005 it was widely believed that they had acquired a player capable of hitting .300, belting 20 home-runs, driving in 100 runs and leading the American League in doubles.

Instantly, fans were rewarded. In 2006, although he didn't lead the AL in double and he didn't quite get to 100 rbi's, Overbay hit a solid .312 batting average, and a career high 22 home-runs. Pair that with his above average defense and Jays fans had all the reason they needed to believe in Overbay. With the solid tools that he possesses it seemed like there was even some room for improvement.

Since then, though, and partially due to injury shortened seasons, Overbay has never been able to regain his form. Although I believe that he still has the ability to be a high impact player, I've lost faith in Overbay, and I don't believe that he will ever again come close to reaching his potential.

The main point in the argument that Overbay is a useful player is his consistently high on-base-percentage. Although I would normally support this argument, it has never amounted to either runs scored or RBI's for Overbay, who declared shortly after being traded to the Jays that, “If I'm scoring runs or driving in runs, that's all that matters.”

Last year, he ended up seventh on the team in RBI's per plate appearance. That just doesn't cut it for a guy who should be hitting in the middle of the batting order.

More telling though, since OBP is supposed to be his saving grace, is his number of runs scored per plate appearance. Of Blue Jays who had more than 100 plate appearances last year only Chavez, Millar, Rios, and Barajas had lower runs scored per plate appearance averages.

You could argue that Overbay would score more runs if he hit higher in the order. I would tell you that you can't bat him higher in the order because he strikes out too much. Only Ruiz, Snider, and Bautista had a higher strike out per plate appearance ratio last season.

What this tells me is that Overbay isn't achieving his potential because he simply isn't putting the ball in play often enough. Being among the team leaders in OBP is great, but being among the team strike-out leaders, without driving in or scoring runs, isn't. Only Hill and Lind had more total strikeouts last season, and I don't think there's any need to point out their runs scored and RBI totals.

Ultimately, it's easy for Overbay to get walks. We all know the kind of power that he is capable of, and so does every pitcher he faces. He has no threat behind him so there's no harm in letting him on base. For Overbay to be useful on this team he has to find a way to turn a few more of his walks, and many more of his strikeouts, into balls in play. His walks won't turn into RBI's any time soon.

I also did a quick check against some of the greatest hitters of our time, and the greatest hitter of all time, to see how Overbay has stacked up over his career when he has put the ball in play. I looked up the career batting average on balls in play for Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds, Ichiro Suzuki, and the great Pete Rose. Overbay's career BAbip was higher than every player on the list except Ichiro.

Get the bat off you're shoulder, Lyle. You're role on this team isn't to sit back and take walks.

Let's talk Batting Order

First, I would like to take this opportunity to welcome myself back to my blog. I've been absent for a while for a number of reasons that I won't bother getting into.

Spring Training is finally here, so I'm going to jump right on the bandwagon and write an entry in which I make a bunch of speculations about the potential Blue Jays batting order for the upcoming season.

Now, before you go on calling me crazy I would like to point out that I don't expect that there's any possibility of my “ideal” batting order ever being put into use. Then again, Cito is one of the only men left in baseball who seems to be crazier than I am.

I should also point out that I am creating this line-up while trying my best to ignore any statistics from previous seasons. Instead, I am basing everything on what I believe the players are capable of based on the tools that they bring to the plate.

Furthermore, most of the line-up projections that I've read so far this year – and there have been many – have focused on deciding which Blue Jay best fits a specific role. While I don't think that there is anything inherently wrong with this method, I don't think that it's the only option for creating an effective batting order.

What I have attempted to create with this line-up is a batting order which focuses on finding the role which best suits – or nurtures - the skill set, and in some cases mental limitations, of the Blue Jays whose production will be most needed if the Jays want to look competitive at any point this season. />

1. Vernon Wells - CF

2. Aaron Hill - 2B

3. Adam Lind - LF

4. Randy Ruiz - DH

5. Travis Snider - RF

6. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B

7. Lyle Overbay - 1B

8. John Buck - C

9. Alex Gonzalez - SS

Here's my thought process:

Despite being a consistent source of disappointment to anyone who considers himself a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays, Vernon Wells remains one of the most talented players to put on the uniform each day. I am a firm believer that if he's ever going to approach his full potential again, the Blue Jays are going to have to find a way to get him into the game early and often. While Wells has been something of a free swinger throughout his career - a trait that is normally not becoming of a lead-off hitter - I believe that if he's actually healthy this year he is easily talented enough to change his approach and become the most effective option at the top of the order. I believe that Wells will find himself greatly improved if he doesn't feel like he's expected to hit 25+ home-runs. Additionally, Wells is still a pretty good base-runner and probably the closest thing to a steal threat that the Jays have this year.

My first choice for Vernon was actually to have him hitting in the two-hole. I decided that Hill is more vital to the Jays, though, and that his ideal slot would therefore trump Wells'. I thought about batting Hill fourth, but ultimately decided that a good number of his home-runs from last year could very easily turn into scorched doubles instead. Being the Jays second best hitter I decided that he's at his most dangerous hitting before the best.

Adam Lind is the Blue Jays best hitter. He's said that he's uncomfortable hitting fourth. I can't think of any reason that justifies moving him out of his comfort zone this season. However silly I find his belief that he won't hit as well elsewhere in the order, I expect him to be at his best if his confidence is left alone for now.

At the end of last season I had very little faith in Randy Ruiz being able to maintain the power that he showed us in September. Seeing the pictures from camp of a leaner, meaner Ruiz, I've changed my mind. This guy obviously has the drive and determination to get his shot, and maintain his performance.

Travis Snider has all the tools to be a heart-of-the-order guy someday. Let's put some faith in him right now. There's a thought process out there somewhere which says he'll benefit from taking less meaningful at-bats and working his way up the order slowly. Instead, I think that he ends up suffering with the knowledge that he's expected to play at a certain level to earn what's supposed to be his rightful position. He may also feel that the team doesn't have faith in him, which in turn damages the faith he has in himself. We tried that last year, and it seemed to fail pretty miserably.

Edwin Encarnacion has the ability to hit some bombs this year. Based on physical tools I would have liked to hit him even higher in the order, but he appears to lack the mental toughness to perform consistently. So he finds himself sixth.

John Buck has a nice powerful swing. Nothing to justify hitting him higher than seventh, though, and he could easily be switched with Overbay and hit eighth. I wish we still had Barajas.

Overbay's real value comes from being a patient hitter who'll take his walks. In order for this to stay true he has to keep hitting in the lower third of the order. Down here pitchers will have no reason to attack the strike zone and risk running into the power that he's inconsistently teased us with over the years. I put him down to eighth with the hopes that he'll still be on base for the top of the order a few more times and maybe turn some of his walks into runs with some degree of consistency.

Alex Gonzalez – I wish that we could DH for the shortstop.

I left Jose Bautista out of my order because I have no faith in him. I think that he's very good at pinch hitting against lefties. So good, in fact, that he can start against them too. I'd probably slide him into the two hole and flip Hill down to fourth, Ruiz down to fifth, and sit Snider in those games at the start of the season.

Yo, Anthopoulos! Be More Like The...Leafs?

Alex Anthopoulos would do well to highlight a page of the book on Brian Burke today.

In one fell swoop the Leafs GM managed to recreate the culture of his hockey club. Obviously, blockbuster mid-season deals like this aren't very common in the sporting world any more, let alone in baseball. Burke brought in two big name players, and I'm sure we're all very excited about it, but more importantly he got rid of six players from his under-achieving and often complacent looking roster.

The criticism had been made that the Leafs were not hungry enough, and that they had become too accustomed to losing. So, Burke got rid of 30% of his roster, at least half of whom were having their best season in the NHL. None of them were irreplaceable, though, so Burke allowed himself to cut ties with them.

Burke also managed to dispense with what most people believed was an immovable contract in Jason Blake. The only contract that might be harder to move in the city of Toronto was Vernon Wells', and now I have a little bit more hope. (note: that still doesn't mean there's much hope, but a little optimism never hurt)

Although the Jays probably aren't going to be as embarassing as the Leafs in the upcoming season, I don't think that it's much of a stretch to say that they've probably become pretty accustomed to missing the play-offs. I don't presume to put all of the blame on the players, but eventually something's got to give. In my opinion, there are still too many players on the roster who've had their chance - and missed it - to help the Jays take it to the next level.

At this point I should probably point out that I am a huge fan of big trades, if you didn't realise that already.

The Blue Jays, and specifically AA, have made sweeping changes this off-season. There should be very good, healthy competition for positions in the outfield, bullpen, and starting rotation. I can't help but feel, though, that the team would be much further ahead if a few culture shock type trades took place. There are rumours that guys like Scott Downs and Jason Frasor might be on the trading block, and as much as I'd like to keep watching them pitch, I'd be just as happy to see the clubhouse reboot further.

I would also be overjoyed to see Wells and Lyle Overbay moved. Even if the Blue Jays have to eat half of Wells salary. You know, I'd even be curious to see what Aaron Hill or Adam Lind could fetch at the deadline.

It's going to be pretty hard to move this team towards the post season with a roster of players who don't expect to, or believe they can get there.