A Blue Jay with a Machine Gun

Hello, Fred Lewis.

2010-04-15T23:11:00.003-04:00

So, the Blue Jays have acquired Fred Lewis from the Giants for cash and a player to be named later. I love it.

About 40 minutes ago, when the news broke on twitter, I wondered where Lewis would fit.

For any of you who are unfamiliar with Lewis, he's a reasonably speedy, left handed bat with lead-off type abilities. He's also an outfielder.

So, in short, I don't know where he fits.

Cito Gaston and AA have both said that Lewis will be coming off the bench for the Jays, who remain committed to their outfielders.

Here's why I like the move, though. It's pretty obvious that the Blue Jays brass don't have a lot of faith in Randy Ruiz, which means that there's no one to spell off Lyle Overbay if he continues to sputter so mightily at the plate. That is, until now. With the addition of Lewis, once he returns from the DL, there will be an opportunity for Jose Bautista, the Jays current right fielder and walk machine, to slide into first base while Lyle takes some time off to right himself. Lewis could then play Right. Of course, it would be nice to see Bautista bring the average up a little bit, but for now I'll settle for his .388 OBP from the leadoff position.

In any case, the addition of an established Major League outfielder like Lewis should put pressure on any of the Jays current underachievers, as Bautista can play any of their positions should Gaston choose to shake things up.

How the Jays will MAKE THE PLAYOFFS THIS YEAR!!!!!

2010-04-02T19:12:00.002-04:00

Okay, so here it is. The Jays season starts in less than seventy-two hours and I really need to start writing more now. Let's start with this, a list of everything that IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS YEAR and result in the Jays shocking the world on an '08 Rays like scale.

1.Shaun Marcum is going to return to form immediately and win 16-18 games this year.

2.Dustin McGowan is going to come back by June and win 11-13 games.

3.Brandon Morrow is simply going to be awesome.

4.Ricky Romero is not going to suffer any type of sophomore setback. He'll also win 14-17 games.

5.Dana Eveland is going to perform admirably until the inevitable return of an injured pitcher like Rzepchinski or Litsch or McGowan, or the call-up of Cecil.

6.Brian Tallet will do the same thing, then he'll go to the bullpen and dominate lives.

7.Jose Bautista will be this year's Marco Scutaro. No one will be sure whether or not they should believe in him, except Cito, and Cito will be right.

8.Aaron Hill will stay healthy and be as awesome as ever.

9.Adam Lind will put up even bigger numbers than last year.

10. Vernon Wells will stay healthy, and I mean really healthy, not just healthy enough to play. We, the fans, will in turn forget all about the disappointment he's caused us over the last three years as he knocks out thirty-five dingers and says something silly about how chicks still dig the long-ball.

11.The new lean, mean, Randy Ruiz machine will get lots of playing time and look almost as good as he did last year, only less fat.

12.Edwin Encarnacion will step it up and learn how to play defense.

13.Lyle Overbay will take the bat off his shoulder, and drive in ninety plus RBI.

14.John Buck will prove to be a great pitch caller and hit a few home-runs as a bonus. His back won't bother him too much, and he'll shock the world by not allowing any past-balls ALL YEAR.

15.Alex Gonzalez will play good defense, and be traded when Hecchavarria surprises everyone and becomes the starter in June.

16.Adeinis Hecchavarria will surprise everyone and become the starter in June. And be awesome.

17.Travis Snider will force the Manager to move him up in the order by playing like...let's go with Griffey Jr. circa 1993.

18.Jason Frasor will save thirty-eight games.

And then; "Hello, Playoffs. It's been a while. Now, get out of the way of our trophy!"

Why the Fifth Starter Matters

2010-03-25T14:38:00.000-04:00

There have been a few articles in the sabermetric community recently on the non-existence of the 'fifth starter.' The argument is basically that it is very rare for a rotation to include five starters make 25+ starts, so the classification of a full-time pitcher as a 'fifth starter' is a fallacy, since if he's truly full-time he'll be making the third or fourth amount of starts.

Marc Hulet of Fangraphs goes further, saying that since the fifth starter does not exist, the fifth start could be done by a committee of the bullpen long-man, a prospect, and a minor-league veteran. This way a team can focus instead on getting four pitchers capable of starting 25+ games instead of worrying about the fifth. Click through to the links of 'a' and 'few' in the opening paragraph for a longer argument from Hulet.

I agree, in large part, with the first paragraph in that there doesn't exist a full-time pitcher who is a 'fifth starter.' I would go further, however, and deny the existence of second starters, third starters, and fourth starters. The whole numbering concept is extremely subjective. Jesse Litsch (pictured, goofy) was the fifth starter for the 07 and 08 Jays, but in another rotation he may have been the number three guy. To classify him as a 'fifth starter' only makes sense in a context where there are four better starters who stay healthier than Jesse, which is an extremely subjective argument to make. AJ Burnett, number two in the Yankees rotation, would be number one in the Blue Jays rotation, same argument.

It is Marc Hulet's arguments that I disagree with. He made his points now, as coaches are solidifying their rotations for the beginning of the season, essentially saying that the selection for the fifth start is a waste of time and energy (sorry Brian Tallet, pic from AP) since no five starters are likely to spend the majority of the year in the rotation. My contention is that five starters are not going to spend the majority of the year in the rotation, probably more like three or four, but the coaches don't get to decide which three or four this is. Pitchers get injured all the time and just because Phil Hughes starts the year as the fifth starter in the Yankee rotation does not mean he won't end up as the third starter when AJ Burnett inevitably gets injured. When a pitcher gets injured and can't make the majority of the starts in their pitching slot, it's not like the coaches can decide that it's the fifth starter who has to go on the DL.

I would rather the fifth spot in the rotation go to the fifth best starter available, out of spring training, rather than Hulet's suggested committee. They get regular turns in the rotation, perhaps with the occasional skip due to an off day, and can move up in the rotation pecking order if one of the better pitchers comes down with an injury. This way the starter is used to the workload and is not a long reliever or a prospect riding the shuttle up and down to triple-A, and so is in a better position to step in and make 25+ starts.

How much longer until the season starts?

2010-03-23T17:45:00.001-04:00

I'm resisting the temptation to respond to the shot-across-the-bow post from fellow BJwaMG blogger J-Mac, because it's nearly impossible to change the opinions of the people I'm up against in this and it's not worth the frustration of banging my head against a wall. My only contention is this: Overbay is not awful. That's all I was arguing there.

On to more interesting notes:

MLBastian and Clarence rotation favourite Brian Tallet has been getting rocked in his recent starts. Now, spring stats don't mean a whole lot, but I'm growing more in favour of Dana Eveland in the fifth spot and Tallet to the bullpen, especially if Carlson starts the season on the DL. Cito still loves Tallet for his yeoman's work in the rotation, but isn't it a better reward to put Tallet where he has a history of success rather than the rotation where he, frankly, sucked?
FanGraphs' R.J. Anderson wrote a piece on the value of Jays reliever Shawn Camp, noting that he would likely come with a lesser price tag in a trade than Jason Frasor or Scott Downs. It shows the depth and quality of the Jays bullpen that a player often considered the worst of the lot getting trade consideration.
David Purcey is turning into a reliever, while Ricky Romero is gaining success in the rotation. Keith Law has been saying this all along.
Shaun Marcum is starting opening day. Not much to comment on there, as he was the obvious candidate.

I notice that we have yet to comment on the Hechevarria. All our hard-hitting team of analysts came back with was 'awesome!' and 'playoffs!!!!11!!,' so it was hardly worth posting that. The fact that he's starting in Double-A is notable since starts within shooting distance of the bigs. It also gives the Jays a pretty steady stream of legitimate shortstop prospects from AA to low-A: Hechevarria, Jackson, Pastornicky, and Pierre. Surely one of them will pan out, right? And one of the others can man third.

On Overbay, and why I want him to go away.

2010-03-15T23:50:00.000-04:00

Following up on a mini argument that I had on Twitter last week with fellow BJwaMG author JW, I feel that I must no justify exactly why I feel that Lyle Overbay is not useful.

When the Jays traded for Overbay in December of 2005 it was widely believed that they had acquired a player capable of hitting .300, belting 20 home-runs, driving in 100 runs and leading the American League in doubles.

Instantly, fans were rewarded. In 2006, although he didn't lead the AL in double and he didn't quite get to 100 rbi's, Overbay hit a solid .312 batting average, and a career high 22 home-runs. Pair that with his above average defense and Jays fans had all the reason they needed to believe in Overbay. With the solid tools that he possesses it seemed like there was even some room for improvement.

Since then, though, and partially due to injury shortened seasons, Overbay has never been able to regain his form. Although I believe that he still has the ability to be a high impact player, I've lost faith in Overbay, and I don't believe that he will ever again come close to reaching his potential.

The main point in the argument that Overbay is a useful player is his consistently high on-base-percentage. Although I would normally support this argument, it has never amounted to either runs scored or RBI's for Overbay, who declared shortly after being traded to the Jays that, “If I'm scoring runs or driving in runs, that's all that matters.”

Last year, he ended up seventh on the team in RBI's per plate appearance. That just doesn't cut it for a guy who should be hitting in the middle of the batting order.

More telling though, since OBP is supposed to be his saving grace, is his number of runs scored per plate appearance. Of Blue Jays who had more than 100 plate appearances last year only Chavez, Millar, Rios, and Barajas had lower runs scored per plate appearance averages.

You could argue that Overbay would score more runs if he hit higher in the order. I would tell you that you can't bat him higher in the order because he strikes out too much. Only Ruiz, Snider, and Bautista had a higher strike out per plate appearance ratio last season.

What this tells me is that Overbay isn't achieving his potential because he simply isn't putting the ball in play often enough. Being among the team leaders in OBP is great, but being among the team strike-out leaders, without driving in or scoring runs, isn't. Only Hill and Lind had more total strikeouts last season, and I don't think there's any need to point out their runs scored and RBI totals.

Ultimately, it's easy for Overbay to get walks. We all know the kind of power that he is capable of, and so does every pitcher he faces. He has no threat behind him so there's no harm in letting him on base. For Overbay to be useful on this team he has to find a way to turn a few more of his walks, and many more of his strikeouts, into balls in play. His walks won't turn into RBI's any time soon.

I also did a quick check against some of the greatest hitters of our time, and the greatest hitter of all time, to see how Overbay has stacked up over his career when he has put the ball in play. I looked up the career batting average on balls in play for Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds, Ichiro Suzuki, and the great Pete Rose. Overbay's career BAbip was higher than every player on the list except Ichiro.

Get the bat off you're shoulder, Lyle. You're role on this team isn't to sit back and take walks.

Wednesday Notes

2010-03-10T15:22:00.002-05:00

by jw

Gonna try to cover a few points quickly, hopefully stealing post ideas from J-Mac.

Divisional Realignment?

There has been talk from semi-influential sources about a sort of floating divisional realignment, where if, say, Cleveland wanted to join the AL East and Tampa wanted to join the AL Central for a season they could swap. In this example Tampa would have a good chance of making the playoffs, while Cleveland, who have little shot at the playoffs anyways, could gain revenue from playing in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox. Obviously this whole scheme was brought forth with Tampa, Baltimore, and Toronto in mind.

Better people than I (and also the Drunks) have discussed this, and Neyer pointed out some of the practical flaws of a system like this - notably the unlikelihood of two teams agreeing to switch divisions at the same time. Regardless, at the very least some people around Major League Baseball are taking note of the competitive imbalance and are proposing solutions.

I think there are about three camps within Jays fans on the topic: that it would mean more to beat the Red Sox and Yankees in order to make the playoffs (see: Rays, 2008), that the divisions are fine they just need a balanced schedule between divisions, and 'screw it, just pick the option that gets us to the playoffs fastest.' I think I lean more toward the second camp, but I will note that according to team WAR numbers the Jays have been a top five team these past four years and they would have likely made at least one playoff appearance had they played in the Central. Also: they were 23-15 against AL Central teams last season. Just saying.

Jason Frasor Trade Rumours

Jason Frasor's name has been mentioned a few times in connection with both the Cubs and now the Twins who have lost closer Joe Nathan to injury. It seems like a no-brainer that if Alex Anthopoulos can get a decent prospect for Frasor he would pull the trigger - even if he has to eat Frasor's salary - and it's quickly becoming a seller's market on the once-castigated right hander.

On the other hand, Frasor seems to be a good bet to claim Type A free agent status this coming offseason - especially if he's traded and gets the closing job - so any team seeking a deal would have to send the Jays value at least equal to one year worth of a good reliever, a supplemental round pick, and a second round pick (I've given up the hope of netting first round picks with Blue Jays free agents). That's a rather substantial package and the other teams may not be willing to meet Toronto's price, so we may not be at the end of the Jason Frasor era in Toronto yet.

It was only a year ago that fans were calling on the team to just non-tender Frasor, wasn't it?

Spring Optimism

2010-03-06T16:14:00.001-05:00

by jw

It seems we do this every year, doesn't it? Spring training comes around and the players whose value we questioned have suddenly become heroes when they play well in meaningless games. It was not too long ago, while the Morrow-League trade was going down, that JP Arencibia's (left, courtesy of phxwebguy) name was mentioned as possibly being the minor league player sent to Seattle, and I thought good, I'm tired of being disappointed by him.

A few games into Spring Training, with a couple home runs by Arencibia, and suddenly my opinion has shifted again. Maybe its the warm weather, but I'm feeling optimistic again about the Blue Jays' Catcher-Of-The-Future (part viii).

As MLB.com beat reporter Jordan Bastian states in Friday's article, Arencibia was apparently having trouble with his vision during the 2009 season, making it harder for him to see at night. According to his splits, he hit .284/.338/.432 during the day, as opposed to .227/.274/.446 as night. With his Lasik surgery this offseason it seems reasonable that his numbers will look more like the daytime line this coming season.

His major offensive flaw through the minors has always been his walk-rate and on-base percentage, but if we consider his daytime batting line more in line with his capabilities, a .338 on-base is not that bad and is an improvement on his batting average driven .320 OBP from 2008.

Arencibia has legit power, good defence, and seems to be improving his walk rate. This should be the season he makes his major league debut in September if not sooner, and with a good showing in the minors and the majors he could make a claim on the starting catcher job as early as 2011.

Let's talk Batting Order

2010-02-26T20:43:00.005-05:00

First, I would like to take this opportunity to welcome myself back to my blog. I've been absent for a while for a number of reasons that I won't bother getting into.

Spring Training is finally here, so I'm going to jump right on the bandwagon and write an entry in which I make a bunch of speculations about the potential Blue Jays batting order for the upcoming season.

Now, before you go on calling me crazy I would like to point out that I don't expect that there's any possibility of my “ideal” batting order ever being put into use. Then again, Cito is one of the only men left in baseball who seems to be crazier than I am.

I should also point out that I am creating this line-up while trying my best to ignore any statistics from previous seasons. Instead, I am basing everything on what I believe the players are capable of based on the tools that they bring to the plate.

Furthermore, most of the line-up projections that I've read so far this year – and there have been many – have focused on deciding which Blue Jay best fits a specific role. While I don't think that there is anything inherently wrong with this method, I don't think that it's the only option for creating an effective batting order.

What I have attempted to create with this line-up is a batting order which focuses on finding the role which best suits – or nurtures - the skill set, and in some cases mental limitations, of the Blue Jays whose production will be most needed if the Jays want to look competitive at any point this season. />

Vernon Wells - CF
Aaron Hill - 2B
Adam Lind - LF
Randy Ruiz - DH
Travis Snider - RF
Edwin Encarnacion - 3B
Lyle Overbay - 1B
John Buck - C
Alex Gonzalez - SS

Here's my thought process:

Despite being a consistent source of disappointment to anyone who considers himself a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays, Vernon Wells remains one of the most talented players to put on the uniform each day. I am a firm believer that if he's ever going to approach his full potential again, the Blue Jays are going to have to find a way to get him into the game early and often. While Wells has been something of a free swinger throughout his career - a trait that is normally not becoming of a lead-off hitter - I believe that if he's actually healthy this year he is easily talented enough to change his approach and become the most effective option at the top of the order. I believe that Wells will find himself greatly improved if he doesn't feel like he's expected to hit 25+ home-runs. Additionally, Wells is still a pretty good base-runner and probably the closest thing to a steal threat that the Jays have this year.

My first choice for Vernon was actually to have him hitting in the two-hole. I decided that Hill is more vital to the Jays, though, and that his ideal slot would therefore trump Wells'. I thought about batting Hill fourth, but ultimately decided that a good number of his home-runs from last year could very easily turn into scorched doubles instead. Being the Jays second best hitter I decided that he's at his most dangerous hitting before the best.

Adam Lind is the Blue Jays best hitter. He's said that he's uncomfortable hitting fourth. I can't think of any reason that justifies moving him out of his comfort zone this season. However silly I find his belief that he won't hit as well elsewhere in the order, I expect him to be at his best if his confidence is left alone for now.

At the end of last season I had very little faith in Randy Ruiz being able to maintain the power that he showed us in September. Seeing the pictures from camp of a leaner, meaner Ruiz, I've changed my mind. This guy obviously has the drive and determination to get his shot, and maintain his performance.

Travis Snider has all the tools to be a heart-of-the-order guy someday. Let's put some faith in him right now. There's a thought process out there somewhere which says he'll benefit from taking less meaningful at-bats and working his way up the order slowly. Instead, I think that he ends up suffering with the knowledge that he's expected to play at a certain level to earn what's supposed to be his rightful position. He may also feel that the team doesn't have faith in him, which in turn damages the faith he has in himself. We tried that last year, and it seemed to fail pretty miserably.

Edwin Encarnacion has the ability to hit some bombs this year. Based on physical tools I would have liked to hit him even higher in the order, but he appears to lack the mental toughness to perform consistently. So he finds himself sixth.

John Buck has a nice powerful swing. Nothing to justify hitting him higher than seventh, though, and he could easily be switched with Overbay and hit eighth. I wish we still had Barajas.

Overbay's real value comes from being a patient hitter who'll take his walks. In order for this to stay true he has to keep hitting in the lower third of the order. Down here pitchers will have no reason to attack the strike zone and risk running into the power that he's inconsistently teased us with over the years. I put him down to eighth with the hopes that he'll still be on base for the top of the order a few more times and maybe turn some of his walks into runs with some degree of consistency.

Alex Gonzalez – I wish that we could DH for the shortstop.

I left Jose Bautista out of my order because I have no faith in him. I think that he's very good at pinch hitting against lefties. So good, in fact, that he can start against them too. I'd probably slide him into the two hole and flip Hill down to fourth, Ruiz down to fifth, and sit Snider in those games at the start of the season.

Backloaded Contracts

2010-02-23T17:24:00.000-05:00

by jw

I feel it my duty to point out a major flaw in conventional views of contracts: namely, the opposition to backloaded contracts by fans. I have seen one too many shots against backloaded contracts for players for me to stay silent anymore. Let me put it as plain as possible: backloading contracts is beneficial to the club, not to the player.

Take Vernon Wells, for example. He has a vast contract for 7 years and $126M, which is an average annual value of $18M. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, this breaks down to: 08:$9M, 09:$10M, 10:$21M, 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M (I factored in his signing bonus). Without considering whether or not the contract is good value, we'll take it like the club valued his performance to the tune of $18M a year, the average annual value of his contract.

Subtract the average value from the earned value and you get: 08:$-9M, 09:$-8M, 10:$3M, 11:$5M, 12:$3M, 13:$3M, 14:$3M. From where they valued him, the Blue Jays saved $17M in the first two years and lose $17M over the last five years of his contract, given his contract worth of $18M a year. Obviously, due to the time value of money, you would far rather have money now than money later. Money now can be invested for a return, so the 7/$126M contract that Vernon has is better value to the club than a 7/$126M contract paying the $18M a year.

It goes further, though. Players tend to decline over the length of their long-term contracts once their past their peak, conventionally to the tune of a half win above average a year, which is valued at about $2M in the current market. So, if Vernon is worth 7/$126M, his seasonal value should be about: 08:$24M, 09:$22M, 10:$20M, 11:$18M, 12:$16M, 13:$14M, 14:$12M. So, in fact, the Jays save $27M in the first two years of the contract compared to the $27M they lose in the final five. That's a significant amount

So, between the time value of money and the expected decline in player performance over the length of a contract, backloading a contract is substantially beneficial to the club. Obviously Vernon was never worth the amount of money to begin with, but the problem with the contract is the length and the amount, not the structure.

Here's a Cuban, There's a Cuban

2010-02-14T11:54:00.001-05:00

by jw

Toronto's name has been floated as a possible destination for Cuban defector Jose Julio Ruiz, an athletic first baseman. After the Blue Jays lost out in the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes, they are apparently trying to make up for it by signing another former Cuban.

Ruiz, 25, put up a .305/.408/.467 triple-slash line in Cuba last season with good speed. There has apparently been speculation that he could be moved to the outfield due to his athleticism.

Would this make sense for the Blue Jays? This will be Lyle Overbay's last season on the team, but the Jays have said multiple times that top-prospect Brett Wallace will be moving to first base this season and obviously they see him as a long-term member of the team. Is Ruiz good enough for the Jays to change their mind on this move? They still need a long term solution at third and have said before that Wallace could be average to above-average playing there. I find myself doubting this, however, as the organization has been absolutely committed to Wallace at first since they acquired him from Oakland.

If he is indeed moved to the outfield, I don't think I'm out of line to speculate that he would play a corner position. This is another point of trouble with the Jays, as Snider and Wells will likely stick in the corner spots long-term as Vernon's decline in defence becomes too much to take in centre. Could they put Ruiz in left short-term, then trade him when they can't play Wells in centre anymore? I suppose, but it'd be a rather short-sighted move.

Apparently there is cash to burn in the amateur free agent budget, as the team seems to be mentioned every time a player like this is brought up. Recall earlier in the decade, when each and every amateur player had their name attached to the Red Sox and Yankees at some point or another? Well, the Blue Jays under Alex Anthopoulos have become another team that will always be mentioned whenever a young star moves into the MLB. And that makes me optimistic for the future. Even if JJR, as I suspect, is not a fit for the Jays, they have demonstrated their commitment to finding young talent wherever they can.

Edit: While we're at it, how much do you want to bet that the Jays were one of the teams that watched 19-year-old Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechevarria last week?

Blue Jays swing deal for Dana Eveland

2010-02-06T15:55:00.001-05:00

by jw

Honestly, I just don't get it anymore. I thought I had managed a halfways decent justification for the Kevin Gregg signing, even if I only half believed it myself. Now it has come out that the Jays have traded the ubiquitous 'player-to-be-named-later or cash' for the recently DFA'd Dana Eveland.

Yup, Dana Eveland. He keeps the ball on the ground decently. His strikeout rate is pretty bad. His walk rate is too high. Oh, and he's a lefty.

There are two adages at play here. One is that 'you can never have enough pitchers.' The other is that 'if you have breath and throw with your left hand, some team somewhere will pay you to pitch.' The latter is apparently true. The former Anthopoulos seems hellbent to disprove.

Kevin Gregg, Fourth Closer on Roster?

2010-02-02T16:04:00.001-05:00

by jw

When I initially saw that the Jays were one of the finalists in the oh-so-epic Kevin Gregg sweepstakes, my first reaction was 'who?' You see, I've never had him on my fantasy team, so why should I care about some middle reliever who played in Chicago? As my previous post evidenced, the Blue Jays have more relievers than they know what to do with.

Oh, right, free agent compensation.

The Cubs declined to offer Gregg arbitration and so are not entitled to compensation when he signs, currently looking like it's going to be the Jays. Gregg is a Type A player and has a good chance of retaining that designation going into the next offseason, even if he only has a modest amount of save opportunities. If the Blue Jays sign him to a minimal contract this offseason, next offseason they should be able to expect Gregg to decline arbitration, likely gaining the Jays a first or second round pick plus a supplemental round pick in the 2011 draft.

There are three scenarios here:

1) Gregg slips to Type B designation, in which case the Jays gain a supplemental round pick in the 2011 draft.

2) Gregg retains Type A designation and declines arbitration, where the Jays gain a team's draft pick and in addition to the supplemental round pick.

3) Gregg retains Type A designation and accepts arbitration. His contract will be low so he wouldn't be able to get a very large raise, probably meaning that the Jays gain a decent reliever at low cost for the 2011 season.

Really, it's a 'win'-'WIN'-'kinda okay' situation, respectively. I'm pretty sure this is Alex Anthopoulos' reasoning, because it's certainly not a move that would improve the team next season.

(If he does indeed sign with the Jays, my bullpen prediction adjusts to CL Frasor, SU Downs, SU Gregg, Carlson, Tallet, Zinicola, Camp, with Roenicke starting the year as Las Vegas' closer.)

Yo, Anthopoulos! Be More Like The...Leafs?

2010-02-01T18:26:00.006-05:00

Alex Anthopoulos would do well to highlight a page of the book on Brian Burke today.

In one fell swoop the Leafs GM managed to recreate the culture of his hockey club. Obviously, blockbuster mid-season deals like this aren't very common in the sporting world any more, let alone in baseball. Burke brought in two big name players, and I'm sure we're all very excited about it, but more importantly he got rid of six players from his under-achieving and often complacent looking roster.

The criticism had been made that the Leafs were not hungry enough, and that they had become too accustomed to losing. So, Burke got rid of 30% of his roster, at least half of whom were having their best season in the NHL. None of them were irreplaceable, though, so Burke allowed himself to cut ties with them.

Burke also managed to dispense with what most people believed was an immovable contract in Jason Blake. The only contract that might be harder to move in the city of Toronto was Vernon Wells', and now I have a little bit more hope. (note: that still doesn't mean there's much hope, but a little optimism never hurt)

Although the Jays probably aren't going to be as embarassing as the Leafs in the upcoming season, I don't think that it's much of a stretch to say that they've probably become pretty accustomed to missing the play-offs. I don't presume to put all of the blame on the players, but eventually something's got to give. In my opinion, there are still too many players on the roster who've had their chance - and missed it - to help the Jays take it to the next level.

At this point I should probably point out that I am a huge fan of big trades, if you didn't realise that already.

The Blue Jays, and specifically AA, have made sweeping changes this off-season. There should be very good, healthy competition for positions in the outfield, bullpen, and starting rotation. I can't help but feel, though, that the team would be much further ahead if a few culture shock type trades took place. There are rumours that guys like Scott Downs and Jason Frasor might be on the trading block, and as much as I'd like to keep watching them pitch, I'd be just as happy to see the clubhouse reboot further.

I would also be overjoyed to see Wells and Lyle Overbay moved. Even if the Blue Jays have to eat half of Wells salary. You know, I'd even be curious to see what Aaron Hill or Adam Lind could fetch at the deadline.

It's going to be pretty hard to move this team towards the post season with a roster of players who don't expect to, or believe they can get there.

Speculating the Pitching Staff II, The Bullpen Chronicles

2010-01-29T14:07:00.002-05:00

To follow up yesterday's post, I don't think McGowan will be ready to break with the team come April. Or, more accurately, even if he is ready the Jays will be cautious with him and start him on the DL and let him rehab through the minors. He's been gone too long with injury, I think, for the Jays to put him in the fire right off the bat. As far as pure speculation goes, if the Jays did decide he was ready I would think they'd have Brett Cecil start in the minors rather than Rzepczynski.

The Bullpen:
I'm going to do the bullpen post a bit differently, seeing as there are a lot more players who can potentially start the year as part of the pen. I'll begin with the locks, then list the candidates for the remaining positions, then give my predictions.

The Locks:

CL: RHP Jason Frasor
I have been a Frasor fan for longer than most people would admit. The diminutive fireballer now has three plus pitches in his repertoire: a 94 MPH fastball, a nice slider, and his new-and-improved changeup. The changeup allowed Frasor to break out in a big way last season, taking over the closing duties for a third time in his career but performing much much better with this opportunity then with the others.

SU: LHP Scott Downs
Scott Downs is a player you can get behind. I enjoy the quirks and rituals of the ballplayers I follow, and Downs' routine of writing his children's initials on the mound before starting his performance helps remind us that players are people too. There's not much that needs to be said about Downs, anyone following the Jays for the last three years knows that he is good. The only reason I do not have him listed as closer is that I expect Cito to want more flexibility in when he plays his best lefty. This would actually make a lot of sense, in my opinion, though I don't expect Cito to pull it off properly.

MR: LHP Jesse Carlson
Carlson had a fantastic 2008 and a modest 2009, but one could point to his overuse as the reason for the latter. I don't think Carlson is as good as his '08 numbers, but I also don't think there's any chance that Cito would not have him in his pen. If Frasor and Downs stay healthy, Carlson will hopefully not be abused quite as much this season.

LR: LHP Brian Tallet
Brian Tallet was not particularly good in 2009. He walked too many batters, gave up too many home runs, and had a GB/FB rate of below one for the first time in seven seasons. All Brian Tallet did was what was asked of him, and for that reason alone he will land a spot in the bullpen. When the starting rotation came down with injuries, Tallet stepped in and gave it his all. Cito is a loyal man (as evidenced by his crusade for Delgado) and will reward Tallet for his service. Also note that Tallet is out of options and would probably be snatched up should the Jays attempt to send him to the minors. No, I think we'll see Tallet all season long. He is definitely a useful piece, and I feel that his numbers will improve going back to the pen full-time.

The Candidates:
Well, we've listed four locks in a seven man bullpen. So we have three spots left to fill and a whole slew of candidates to fill them. I have to figure that only one of them will be filled by a southpaw, so we're looking at at least two right handed relievers for the last three spots. I will list out the candidates quickly. This is taken from the Jays' 40-man roster and non-roster invite list, and will include a guess as to whether they have options left or not (correct me if I'm wrong). Players on minor-league contracts cannot be lost if they don't make the major league roster.

RHP Jeremy Accardo (yes options), RHP Casey Janssen (yes), RHP Dirk "The Garfoose" Hayhurst (yes), RHP Josh Roenicke (yes), RHP Shawn Camp (yes), LHP Sean Henn (yes?), RHP Merkin Valdez (?), RHP Zechry Zinicola (rule 5), RHP Scott Richmond (yes), RHP Shawn "Not-From-Mississauga" Hill (minor-league contract), LHP Zach Jackson (mlc), RHP Lance Broadway (mlc), LHP Willie Collazo (mlc), RHP Steven Register (mlc).

By my reckoning, pretty much all of the listed players can be sent to the minors, which surprised me. I did not list a few of the in-system Jays pitchers who will be at spring training, such as Farquhar, because I think the Jays want to keep them on a developmental path, but we could see them sometime this year. I also did not list David Purcey, who could be moved to the pen but I think the Jays will want to keep him as a starter for the time being.

The Predictions:
Note that this is not who I would put in my bullpen, but merely who I predict the Jays will take north with the team.

MR: RHP Zechry Zinicola
This has nothing to do with Zinicola's qualifications and entirely to do with his status as a Rule 5 draftee. For those who don't know, the Blue Jays picked him up from the Nationals for $50,000 in the Rule 5 draft, and if at any time in the season he is sent down to the minors the Jays will have to offer him back to the Nats for $25,000. So if he does not make the team, it's essentially a waste of twenty-five thousand dollars. That's not to say he is without some qualification. His 7.56 ERA looks horrible last season in AAA, but he had a great strikeout ratio, a good walk ratio, and kept the ball in the park. Zinicola was victimized by a high BABIP of .417 and an abnormally low left-on-base percentage (52.5%). Both of those numbers are typically considered outside the pitcher's control and more of a factor of bad luck than anything so that high ERA is misleading. I don't know how long he will last, but I predict he will break with the team.

SU: RHP Josh Roenicke
Roenicke, picked up from the Reds in the Scott Rolen deal, is supposed to have a very gifted arm. All you hear about the guy is that he's supposed to be groomed as a closer in the future, so it should be unsurprising when he makes the team. I suspect he will be getting a lot of chances in the late-innings, so I gave him the set-up label. I really don't know what to make of the guy, personally.

LR: RHP Shawn Camp
This is the toughest spot to fill, as there are a lot of good candidates. I ended up picking Camp because Cito is loyal to his players and I think the coach is fond of Camp. Add in the fact that he's capable of going multiple innings, which is a quality the Jays will need more without Halladay, and I think Camp is their guy.

Runner's Up:
These are the players that will get the call sooner or later, in order of predicted precedence:
1. Accardo - For the sake of the ego, also because he has had good success in the past.
2. Janssen - Similar to Accardo in the past success. The Jays will want to see what they have with Janssen sooner or later.
3. Richmond - For the Cito loyalty effect, primarily. If he's used similar to how Tallet was last season then he has a lot of value.
4. Hayhurst - It was hard for me to list him so low, because I really do like the quirky Dirk. I hope he'll spend most of the season with the major league team.
5. Zach Jackson - He could be called up quickly if one of the major league southpaws comes down with an injury.
6. Shawn Hill - I think we will see Hill on the mound sometime this season, but he's still recovering from his latest surgery and I would not expect to see him until midseason.

Sorry that this post went a little long, but there are a lot of viable candidates for the bullpen to go over. So my prediction for the opening day roster is: Frasor, Downs, Roenicke, Carlson, Zinicola, Tallet, and Camp. I don't predict that this will be the bullpen at the start of May though.

Delgado and Damon...again.

2010-01-29T10:19:00.003-05:00

Last night's state of the franchise seems to have re-ignited the speculation around Carlos Delgado and Johnny Damon possibly coming to Toronto this year.

This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, but I'm officially throwing myself into Johnny Damon's corner. In my last entry I outlined most of my reasons for liking Damon as a Blue Jay, so right now I'll focus on the reasons that I don't like the Delgado option.

Cito has gone on record as having lobbied for Delgado to return, but I don't fully understand why. Sure, the guy can probably still hit, and he's likely to add some more clout to the middle of the order, but I don't believe that there's any reason to be focusing on middle of the order talent at this point. Hill and Lind look great at three and four, and a bounce back year from either Wells, Encarnacion, or both, should give us everything we need in the heart of the order. And that's not even touching on the seemingly endless potential that Travis Snider could tap into at any moment now, or that Lyle Overbay is still floating around for some reason.

That being said, I am in no way against adding to the middle of the line-up, I just don't think that it should be a priority while we're still without a bonafide lead off type hitter. Especially since there's a very good one still on the market.

Now, I said in my last entry that stats were a secondary reason for my desire to have the Blue Jays land Damon. This is also true of my hesitation about the possibility of acquiring Delgado.

I never thought that Carlos was the leader we needed in Toronto the last time he was here, and although he doesn't necessarily have to fill as big a leadership role on the current incarnation of the Blue Jays I would still expect him to bring in a certain amount of veteran poise to the team, and to mentor some of the younger players. I simply don't think that he's got the character to do this with even half the effect that a player like Damon will accomplish. Although Delgado's accomplishments are nothing to scoff at, he isn't wearing two World Series rings, and he's only been to the post-season once.

Compare this with Damon's seven trips in the past nine seasons and his stellar reputation as a clubhouse superstar and Delgado suddenly seems like an alright second option at best. I still feel very strongly the culture of winning is extremely important, and severely lacking on a talented Blue Jays roster. Damon certainly seems like a better option if we expect to have this culture grow.

Also - I'll mention it again - Johnny could grow back his beard, of which I am a big fan.

Speculation about the Pitching Staff

2010-01-28T13:51:00.001-05:00

Following the trend of blind speculation that has made up the previous two posts on this site, I will attempt to see into the future and tell you what the opening day pitching staff will look like. I will use advanced mathematical models to predict who will be in the rotation, then throw all of that out and guess wildly. Of course, the five I have listed are pretty much the consensus choices, so it's not really all that baseless.

Starting Rotation:
1. RHP Shaun Marcum

Marcum gets the opening day nod from me purely due to being the most experienced starter on the Blue Jays' roster. Marcum's breakout season came back in 2007 when, after bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen, he made a statement in his first start of the year by pitching six no-hit innings before being pulled from the game due to pitch count concerns. Along with McGowan, Halladay, Burnett, and Litsch, the 2007 Jays' starting staff became one of the best in the majors, but Shaun Marcum is the only one of the aforementioned players I expect to make the opening day rotation.

2. LHP Ricky Romero
Jays fans were concerned for years about the performance of Romero in the minors. Drafted sixth overall in 2005 as the top pitcher taken, fans were concerned when Romero struggled in AA with injuries and his control. He entered 2009 with the knowledge that he would have to break out that year if he hoped to have a solid major league career. As he was wont to do that year, Ricky stepped up (with the help of former Jays' pitching coach Brad Arnsberg). There are still concerns about his high walk rate, but Ricky strikes out enough batters and keeps the ball on the ground well enough to warrant a spot in the rotation.

3. RHP Brandon Morrow
While we are on the topic of high walk rates, here comes Brandon Morrow. Recently acquired from the Mariners for Brandon League and prospect Johermyn Chavez, Morrow has been compared to former Jay AJ Burnett in pitch types and potential. His strikeout rate is certainly there, but Morrow needs to harness more control, especially since he doesn't get many groundballs. The Jays hope that with the knowledge that he will have a starting job the entire year, Morrow will be less concerned with keeping his job and more focusing on what needs to be done, since many point to the Mariners' oscillating him between the bullpen and the rotation as the source of his troubles. Blue Jays fans will recall Dustin McGowan being in the same boat, then finally breaking out in 2007 when he was given the full-time job. Indeed Morrow and McGowan's stories have much in common, including the struggles with diabetes.

4. LHP Marc Rzepczynski
Rzepczynski (pronounced like 'Zep-Chin-Ski') was a relative unknown in the Jays' minor league system, with less being heard of him than prospects like Brett Cecil and Brad Mills. Perhaps he did not get much publicity but his numbers were out of this world. Since he was drafted in 2007, all Rzepczynski did was strike batters out, get ground balls, and not give up home runs. Sounds like a recipe for success to me. Like pretty much every pitcher I talk about here, Rzepczynski needs to keep the walks down. After a strong 2009, I feel optimistic that Zep can build upon that minor league success.

5. LHP Brett Cecil
Like fellow 2007 draftee Rzepczynski, Cecil rocketed through the minor league system, also with good strikeout numbers, getting ground balls, and preventing home runs. Cecil also had good walk numbers in the low minors, which gradually increased as he went up through the system. Cecil actually has very similar minor league numbers to Tampa Bay's David Price, who has a greater pedigree and is more highly regarded. Cecil's 2009 was one of ups and downs at the major league level, with him flashing his dominance in one start and bombing in the next. Cecil needs to go deeper into ball games if he wants to have success; he is now over two years removed from his days as a closer in college. He has the ability to become a good number two-type starter at the major league level, which, if he can put it together this year, would fill out a remarkably good starting rotation.

Tomorrow - The Bullpen

Daydreaming About Garfooseberry Bashers Who Are Also Outfielders

2010-01-25T23:30:00.005-05:00

So, I haven't posted anything new in a little while...I've sat down a few times intent on writing something, but ultimately I've had nothing to say. It's been too long, so now I'll mumble for a bit about whatever comes to mind.

I hope AA isn't done dealing yet. I'm quietly optimistic about the roster we have right now, but I feel that, in the spirit of progress, we're still missing at least one significant piece. As JW pointed out earlier, that's probably in the outfield.

Here's a list of available outfielders who I think could help the Jays, complete with details of my thoughts:

Johnny Damon
Yes, his arm strength sucks. I don't care, though. The guy's a machine at the plate. He's got some pop, he can still hit for a solid average, and most importantly it feels like he's always on base.

The stats are a secondary reason for me, though. Damon's been in seven of the past nine post-seasons. The dude's simply used to winning, which is something that can't be said of the rest of the roster. The attitude that he could bring and, hopefully, impose on the team's next generation of leaders, guys like Hill and Lind, is invaluable. Let's face it, the next generation need another mentor, Vernon doesn't cut it.

And then there's the potential return of the beard.

Jermaine Dye
Again, this is a player who's accustomed to winning. He's been in the playoffs five of the past nine seasons, and although his character doesn't have the same reputation as Damon's does, you can bet that he's got a thing or two he can offer to the teams young hitters.

Then there's the power. If Hill and Lind can put up similar numbers to last year, and if Wells and Encarnacion can get it together, then an addition like Dye has the Jays able to play shoot out baseball with anybody...a luxury that would be very nice with such an inexperienced rotation.

Reed Johnson
We all know a lot about Johnson, so I'll keep it short. He doesn't bring the same winning pedigree with him that Damon or Dye bring, but this is a player who's simply inspiring to watch. If he can find his groove again at the plate he's a more than adequate leadoff hitter, which we still seem to need. His defence speaks for itself.

There are other free agent options that would be okay, but don't warrant as much of my attention. These are players who should be cheap, and fit the current AA theme of low risk signings with some big potential if things fall into place. Players like Rocco Baldelli, Marcus Thames, and Eric Byrnes could all make decent options, at least for training camp invitations, if it came down to it. None of these guys carry the same leadership potential of the three players mentioned above, but all have shown flashes of brilliance in the past. If any of these guys can get back to playing anywhere near their potential they can help whatever team they land with.

Obviously, it's unlikely that any of this is even possible, let alone under the consideration of the Blue Jays brass, but speculation is fun...and I'm bored.

Hey, Johnny Damon Needs a Job

2010-01-25T16:36:00.003-05:00

And the Blue Jays need a leadoff-hitting outfielder. The Yankees would apparently pay him $2 MM, and there really aren't any other competitors for Damon's services. Were Alex Anthopoulos to pick Damon up for, say, 1 year, $5 million with a few incentives, it would make the Jays' top of the lineup better and give them valuable trade bait at the deadline.

Lineup - 2009 Stats (AVG/OBP/SLG, wOBA)
LF Johnny Damon - .282/.365/.489, .376
2B Aaron Hill - .286/.330/.499, .357
DH Adam Lind - .305/.370/.562, .394
CF Vernon Wells - .260/.311/.400, .314
1B Lyle Overbay - .265/.372/.466, .363
3B Edwin Encarnacion - .225/.320/.410, .322
RF Travis Snider - .241/.328/.419, .327
C John Buck - .247/.299/.484, .332
SS Alex Gonzalez - .238/.279/.355, .275

C Raul Chavez
DH/1B Randy Ruiz
MIF John McDonald
3B/OF Jose Bautista

While I did get really depressed halfway down writing up that lineup, it would actually be pretty awesome should Vernon and E5 bounce back even a little and Snider just continues to develop.

Though Damon's home run totals would go back to the teens having left Yankee Stadium, his ability to get on-base and his baserunning would provide a significant upgrade to Jose Bautista, the current leadoff candidate. It would also make a pretty slick left-right balance in the lineup. Damon also would not cost a draft pick as he was not offered arbitration and could potentially net the Jays half-decent prospects at the deadline or two draft picks after the season (he is currently a Type A free agent and a pretty sure bet to maintain that ranking going into next offseason).

The downside is pretty obvious: cash. Would the potential prospects Damon would bring back be worth the cost of the contract? Maybe, maybe not. Considering that the Jays are 'building,' a short-term pickup does not benefit their long-term goals and as such may not be deemed worthwhile. I would contend that for the amount that Damon would improve the team and increase fan interest it would be worthwhile, maybe giving the Jays a fighting shot at playing .500 ball. I'm also a tad concerned about his defense in left field, but his UZR has been positive there over two of the last three years.

As a last throw-in, Damon would be a character on an otherwise rather bland team. He has won two World Series over the last six seasons and could provide decent veteran presence that isn't Vernon Wells (who is having a hard time leading by example these days). At the very least, it would make this coming season a little more bearable.

Blue Jays sign Shawn Hill

2010-01-22T12:37:00.000-05:00

In news that is really only exciting to me, hometown hero Shawn Hill has signed with Blue Jays. Hill, who had Tommy John surgery last July, has gone 8-16 in 5 seasons, only pitching in 218 1/3 innings in that time frame due in large part with frequent injuries along the way. He has maintained a respectable 4.11 FIP over that time.

And don't make the Star's mistake and accuse him of being from Mississauga. This guy may have something to say about that.

Arbitration

2010-01-20T15:38:00.000-05:00

Bunch of news coming out in the last few days, specifically about the Blue Jays changing their organizational approach to salary arbitration. Alex Anthopoulos (pictured, left) has proclaimed (perhaps from a mountaintop?) that the Blue Jays organization would not negotiate with arbitration-eligible players past the salary filing deadline (yesterday, for those not in the know) and that any deals would have to be made by this time. This is a significant departure from Anthopoulos' predecessor's policy, which has contributed to the organization's remarkable run of not letting salary negotiations go before the arbiter.

Anthopoulos seems to feel that, by giving this deadline, player agents would be encouraged to finish up negotiations prior to spring training, giving the Blue Jays more cost certainty with regards to player salary and would allow players to focus on baseball when they come to camp rather than protracted negotiations with management. This makes a great deal of sense, at least when the deals get done (as was the case this year). But what happens when the deals don't get done?

Seeing as it has been over a dozen years since Bill Risley and the Blue Jays faced off in front of an arbiter in 1997 it's worth reminding people what the process entails. The player's representatives and the team submit salary expectations for the coming season at the deadline in January. Typically, for the first year of arbitration eligibility, a player can expect about 40% of what he would command were he a free agent. If the sides cannot come to an agreement before the arbitration hearing they are called in to face an independent arbiter, typically a lawyer-type person. Here each side presents arguments as to why the player is worth the salary they presented, or, more to the point, argue why they are worth more than the player camp suggested or why they're worth less than the team suggested and why each side is being generous with its filing. The arbiter takes these arguments, compares the player with his contemporaries, and selects one of the two proposed salaries. Note that there is not compromise once it has come to the arbiter, it's one salary filed or the other. So it's a bad idea to get too greedy with the filing because it increases the likelihood that the arbiter with side with the other salary filed. Also note that the arbiter will never award a pay decrease and even if the player did not play at all in the previous season will at least give a pay increase in line with inflation.

It's actually not too bad a system, the team just runs the risk of alienating the player when they argue that he's not worth the salary they're offering, let alone the player agent's proposed salary. So suppose a resident RLW (acronym: replacement-level whiner) goes to arbitration court and AA crushes his little spirits. So what loyalty does this purely hypothetical player have toward the organization (which he hypothetically has already spoken out against and already hypothetically asked to not be tendered a contract in a buyer's market saturated with players of similar hypothetical skills)?

Obviously said hypothetical player must have already settled with the team, as all six arbitration eligible players have now signed contracts with the Blue Jays prior to Anthopoulos' deadline. So the system must work, right? I wouldn't be quick to proclaim this (from atop a mountain or not), as it's very much a buyer's market and relievers (four of the five Tuesday signings) should be happy to have a job at all at this point.

I'll hold out judgment on the Blue Jays' policy for now and see how it goes in the future. I think they have a good thing going, with the twelve consecutive seasons of not going to arbitration court, and I'd hate to see it end. And really, outside of the Lincecums and the Howards, the organization is typically arguing about a pay difference of under a million dollars. While a million dollars is a large amount to us lowly folks, it's a pittance in terms of total payroll - and perhaps worthwhile for keeping the players happy and the clubhouse atmosphere clean and cancer-free? Time will tell.

Jays sign Delgado?

2010-01-19T17:18:00.001-05:00

5 Minutes Later Update: Alex Anthopoulos has denied the Delgado rumours (via MLB.com's Jordan Bastian). Shows me for trying to catch the story as it breaks.

A week later and I'm forced to eat my words?

Word out of Puerto Rico (via MLB.com's Noah Coslov) has Delgado signing with Toronto. I'd ask you to call me a sceptic, but the DJFs have already done that, so I suppose in the interest of being different I won't.

Let's compare four players:

2009 Stats:
Player A: 115 PA, .313/.385/.635, 10 HR, 17 RBI
Player B: 112 PA, .298/.393/.521, 4 HR, 15 RBI
Player C: 500 PA, .265/.372/.466, 16 HR, 64 RBI

Projected (Bill James) 2010 Stats:
Player A: 194 PA, .294/.352/.517, 9 HR, 31 RBI
Player B: 465 PA, .263/.361/.494, 23 HR, 79 RBI
Player C: 460 PA, .267/.359/.443, 15 HR, 63 RBI

Just looking at the numbers, player B seems like a slightly better offensive player. More power than player C, better on base (and less BA-based) than player A. If the Delgado signing is true, then these three will have to fit into one and a half batting positions. Overbay, player C, is the far superior defender. Ruiz, player A, doesn't have a position and would likely have to DH, but he is the only right-handed option for platooning. The real question: is Delgado better enough with the bat to displace the superior defender (Overbay)? My vote is no. And the more Delgado DHs, the more Lind has to play LF, which is no good for anyone.

So yeah, I'm sceptical on this report. Nostalgia may be able to sign tickets, but not enough to justify it. Not to mention that Brett Wallace kid in AAA.

At least we don't wear camo jerseys?

2010-01-14T21:08:00.002-05:00

The Blue Jays uniforms suck. Everything about them reeks of bush-league. The snappy Jays font on the home jerseys looks cheap. The boring font on the grey out of town jerseys looks like something I might have designed when I was ten. The black third jerseys, well, they're black...enough said. I love the powder blue jerseys on Flashback Fridays, but the powder blue pants look like something you'd see on a softball team. And, I haven't even mentioned the logo.

Back in '02 the Jays adopted this uniform and I thought that it would die faster than Jay Leno's career in prime time. Unfortunately, I was wrong. Not only have the Blue Jays kept on wearing that uniform, they've even added a secondary logo that's just a sissy looking letter T. I don't get it. The team looked good in the early nineties. Then, they looked okay in the late nineties and into the earliest parts of the last decade. Now they look bad, and boring. The uniforms barely even have blue in them any more. What's up with that?

I've heard rumours that Rogers wanted the team to show less ties to it's former ownership (Labatt's) and that they chose to remove the colour blue, and the word blue, from the uniform in order to distance themselves. I don't know if that's true or not, but if it is I think it's just about the worst reason ever. More than likely it was just a ploy to get fans to buy more merchandise and upgrade to the new logo and jersey. Either way, I hope they change back soon.

At least they're not wearing those awful grey hats any more.

Oh, and since I didn't bother mentioning it earlier, the angry looking blue jay on the logo...well, he's the worst looking logo in the major leagues. The only worse logos that I can think of belonged to the D-Backs and Rays, and they stopped wearing their uglies. It's time for Toronto to follow suit.

Jays out of Delgado hunt

2010-01-13T15:49:00.000-05:00

In a dramatic turn of events today, Jordan Bastian tweets that the Blue Jays have pulled out - read: were never in - the Carlos Delgado sweepstakes. Bastian has it from a major league source that he does not fit into the Jays' plans, unsurprisingly. Since Bastian is a Blue Jays beat writer we can suppose that the major league source is from the Jays organization and can be taken with pretty good authority. So what does this mean?

The Jays are not going to pay for something they can get for free. Read: they aren't stupid.
They don't think nostalgia will sell tickets. I would not expect a boost in ticket sales would match what Delgado will make next year anyways but it seems that the Jays executives wouldn't expect Delgado fans to become repeat customers.
The Jays don't see a position for him. Does this mean that they like Ruiz at DH or that they don't feel Lind can play in left field full time? Probably more of the latter.

Another consequence of number three is that Lyle Overbay does not seem likely to be traded. Also, it means that one of the corner outfield spots is up for grabs. Let's just hope it's not going to be filled with some combination of Bautista and Gathright.

I wish I had a big-mac!

2010-01-12T19:09:00.003-05:00

I didn't plan on talking about anything going on in baseball that didn't directly relate to the Blue Jays for at least a few weeks. This is, after all, going to be a Blue Jay centric blog. I just can't help myself though, Mark McGwire's long awaited, but not entirely expected, public admission of steroid use yesterday has provided me with an opportunity that I just can't pass up: the opportunity to offer my opinions on what has come to be accepted as baseball's darkest hour.

Until today, I thought that I didn't care about steroids anymore. I thought that I was completely ready to ignore every baseball-steroid-scandal-story for the rest of my life. I guess I was wrong. Too bad for me...

I've always felt that the amount of blame being placed on the players of the so called steroid era was unjust. This isn't to say that I condone their having 'juiced', or that I think they should be entirely excused for it, but how many among us can honestly say that we've never tried to gain a competitive advantage by bending or breaking the rules? Most of us, at some point, have cheated. Maybe it was a math test in high school or maybe it was just a game of cards. Either way, most of us have cheated at some point, and most of us haven't had the pressure of a potential multi-million dollar contract coupled with national fame and glory to influence our decisions.

Again, I don't condone steroid use, and I certainly don't mean to suggest that cheating is acceptable behaviour by anyone. It happens, though, and I can't stomach listening to Major League Baseball players being criticized because they've cheated as though the rest of the world has some sort of moral high-ground to stand on. The players took advantage of an opportunity that the league provided them. Whether or not league officials were turning a blind eye, it's apparent that they dropped the ball. In my opinion, it should be a severe embarrassment to the league that strong measures weren't taken before Congress stepped in.

I find myself empathizing with McGwire today. After five years in virtual exile, he has decided to enter back into the arena that is professional baseball. Obviously, he's felt a need to clear the air. And he did just that, with much difficulty and anguish - according to any description I've read so far of the actual interview - yesterday. Now he finds himself being criticized again. Apparently admission and apology aren't going to be good enough for the world of baseball. Somehow, if you buy into a lot of what's been written, he didn't even apologize properly. The guy just can't win.

The focus of most of the criticism seems to stem from the idea that McGwire didn't admit that his steroid use contributed to his astonishing home run totals. He didn't deny the possibility either. Ultimately, no one will ever know. Perhaps his home runs wouldn't have sailed five-hundred plus feet as often as they did, but Big-Mac was a destined to be a great power hitter with or without steroids. I've argued time and again that no amount of muscle will help you perform the kind of perfectly timed, perfectly square contact between a cylinder and a sphere that's needed to hit a home run. Perhaps some of his less impressive shots would instead have landed on the warning track or bounded off the wall, but any ball that soared five-hundred feet is a home run no matter what.

The biggest question when we're looking at McGwire's totals becomes whether or not he would have been able to play as many games while he put together his career total. He claims that he used steroids in order to stay healthy and in the line-up, which would lead to the conclusion that he wouldn't have been able to play as often as he did. There's also evidence which suggests that steroids can lead to just as many injuries as they prevent. Again, we'll never know for sure.

I apologize for the jumbled nature of this entry, but in truth my feelings on the steroid controversy are just as bad. I can't decide exactly how I feel about it, but no matter where the brunt of the blame should land it's a terrible stain on a great sport. For now, I'll settle on blaming everybody. It was wrong for the players who used steroids to cheat. It was stupid of Major League Baseball to let them get away with it for so long. It doesn't make sense to devalue every achievement of the steroid era players, not to mention the relentless attack on each player's character. We'll simply never know for sure what impact steroids had, so we might as well move on.

To close, I'll tie this back to a former Blue Jay. Jose Canseco is claiming that McGwire has called him a liar by refusing to admit that the bash brothers used to inject each other (in the clubhouse washroom) while they were team mates in Oakland as he claimed in his book. I really wish Canseco would go away and stop trying to find the spotlight. There's a sad irony that I'm even mentioning him, considering my opinion of him, but he's a former Jay, and I wanted to tie this to them somehow. I'll try not to mention him again. Ever.

On the Origin of Fandom

2010-01-11T14:46:00.000-05:00

Alright, jw here to steer you through the second inaugural post of A Blue Jay with a Machine Gun. Seeing as JMac already started off with a history of his Blue Jay fandom I figured I could do worse by following it up with my own.

Like him - and indeed pretty much every Canadian around my age - my earliest Blue Jay memories stem from the golden 92-93 years. My earliest memory is of going to a regular season evening game in 1992. I call it a "memory," but really the only thing I remember from it was how tired I was. In my defence, I was six and it was way past my bedtime. Oh, I also remember cheering for John Olerud, my favourite player from the era. Unlike JMac, I then spent thirteen years away from the sport. I was really bad at hand-eye coordination and so never really played as a kid and the '94 strike took away a lot of the interest.

The next step in the story involved living in residence at university from '04 to '06. Here, good friends such as JMac and Bryne (http://bnr.mlblogs.com/) would go to the common rooms for hours at a time to watch silly things like the 04 World Series and the World Baseball Classic. Sometimes I followed, especially if we were in good conversations. Eventually, I actually gave the game a second chance.

My first modern baseball memory is of former teammates Josh Beckett and AJ Burnett facing off against each other for the first time. Somehow both managed to injure themselves in the game and the game was a huge bad sign for the Jays' season. But I was hooked. I rarely missed a game the rest of that summer.

When I get my teeth in something I'm not likely to let go. From there I went to the Internet, read multiple versions of each postgame story, tried to understand those weird stat things underneath the players' names. I picked the brains of friends, learned to ignore everything Jamie Campbell said, and got to appreciate most every aspect of the game. Memories of my childhood flooded back and I remembered those sunny day games when my aunt and uncle visited from the Maritimes, going to the Dome, cracking peanuts, and cheering for the Jays. Nostalgia is a powerful thing.

Over the next few years JMac and I talked and debated baseball for many hours at a time. I was more of an Internet and statistically educated baseball fan, he more of an old school talent evaluator, which led to many interesting conflicts of opinion.

Both of us were fans of Jays blogs and each wanted to start one one day. I had a short-lived attempt last year with an economics focused blog, which led me to an even shorter-lived gig with Statistically Speaking. We eventually concluded that our best bet would be to collaborate on a single blog, to kick each others butts in line. Which is how this new blog started up, and how you're reading this entry.

It's a dawn of a new Blue Jays era. New decade, new GM, new blog. Clearly one of those things is more important the others.

Welcome to the blog, hope to see you again.

Dr. JMac or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Blue Jays

2010-01-11T12:30:00.009-05:00

Hi.

Welcome to A Blue Jay with a Machine Gun.

I hope that you're reading this while we're still the newest Jays blog in the blogosphere. That way when we're famous, or something like it, you'll be able to say that you were a reader - and hopefully a commenter - from the beginning. Then you'll be able to pat yourself on the back. Seriously. You can even brag to your friends if you want to, but no one likes a show-off.

So, good time to start a blog. New decade, new GM, new...other stuff. Whatever, you get the point and you probably think it's pretty cheesy. I don't blame you, I think it's cheesy too. Really, I just needed a way to transition into the the meat of this post, the part where I actually write about the Blue Jays.

Okay, so maybe I'm not really going to talk about the current Blue Jays yet. Instead, I'll tell you about how I came to love the Blue Jays.

It starts with back-to-back World Series titles. I was seven years old in September of '92. My baseball experience at that point included nothing but a little bit of T-ball in the back yard, and a lot of wall-ball at recess. I'm sure I'd watched bits and pieces of games prior to the playoffs that year, but I don't remember them if I did. My earliest Jays memory is seeing Dennis Eckersley pitching in the ALCS...I hope that it was the game four home-run that Robbie Alomar hit, but all I actually remember is the mustache and the hair.

Fast forward a little bit now to Game 6 of the World Series in Atlanta and we have my next clear Blue Jays memory. I'm pretty sure I slept through most of the game before my dad woke me up, at what felt like super-late o'clock, to tell me that I was about to see the World Series winning hit. He was right. He had woken me up just in time to see Dave Winfield's game winning double in the top of the 11^th inning. I stayed awake for the rest of the game and thought that Joe Carter was a hero for catching the final out, even though he was playing first base and didn't really do anything. I also learned to hate Otis Nixon that day...my Mom said he looked like a troll, and I was afraid of trolls.

The next summer I signed up to play baseball and the Blue Jays won again. Naturally, I paid attention this time and have way too many memories from '93 to be able to share them all. There's really only one that's worth writing about anyway. You can even guess which one, if you want to...Did you guess Carter's dinger off Mitch “Wild-Thing” Williams in Game 6? Good.

Like everyone else, Carter's blast is my favorite baseball memory of all time. We had all the kids my age that lived in the neighborhood over that night to watch the game, and most of them had fallen asleep by the ninth. Not me, though. I was hooked.

I was laying in front of the TV and under the coffee table in the rec-room, watching nervously as the Jays seemed poised to lose the game. This is the one and only time in my life that I can remember praying outside of dinner with my grandparents, funerals, or weddings. I clasped my hands together, I shut my eyes, I bowed my head, and I whispered to myself, “Please Joe, please do it for me.” And did he ever. The next thing I knew my whole family and our six or seven young guests were screaming and yelling and dancing around the rec-room (it was a dance that my then five year old brother had invented called the turkey dance, in case you were wondering). The Blue Jays had won the World Series, and Joe Carter had done it for me. I still have the full page picture of him jumping around the bases that appeared in the next day's Toronto Star.

Obviously, there's never been another moment quite like that since. I could be disappointed, but really, how many people have ever seen one of their favourite players on their favourite team hit a World Series winning walk-off home-run. Not very many. There's been a lot of time since then to lose faith, but that faith is easily restored when I can fondly remember the Blue Jays' magic of my childhood.

Thanks for reading. I sincerely hope that you'll enjoy this blog.